Across 11 Caribbean villa markets, the December 2026-through-March 2027 6-to-10-bedroom trophy weekly buyout clears at a composite USD 84,200, weighted by inventory share, up 4.6 percent on the 2025-26 comparable. By 15 May 2026, the Christmas-NYE 2026-27 trophy band is 47 percent committed across the index. Antigua's Jumby Bay private-estate stack is the tightest at 78 percent. Necker Island's two Christmas weeks are sold; the Moskito Branson Estate buyout has one week available . Saint Barthelemy's peak New Year week (28 December to 4 January) is 84 percent committed, with the trophy band at Pointe Milou and Lurin clearing USD 180,000 to USD 300,000. The full composite, the methodology, and the 2027-28 booking horizon follow.
The index runs across the 11 Caribbean markets the desk audits each cycle. Each market is scored on five axes (rate vs three-year average, supply tightness at Christmas-NYE peak, staff bench, hurricane-clause discipline, air access), composited, and sorted into outperform, hold, and underperform tiers. Methodology, sources, and per-market write-ups follow.
The composite, scored
| Market | Christmas-NYE 6-10BR median | 15 May locked | Composite (1 to 5) | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anguilla | USD 78,000 | 52% | 4.4 | Outperform |
| British Virgin Islands (Necker plus contained-island) | USD 165,000 | 72% | 4.3 | Outperform |
| Antigua (Jumby Bay private estates) | USD 145,000 | 78% | 4.2 | Outperform |
| Turks and Caicos (Grace Bay) | USD 68,000 | 62% | 3.7 | Hold |
| Barbados (Sandy Lane Estate) | USD 95,000 | 64% | 3.6 | Hold |
| Bahamas (Harbour Island) | USD 72,000 | 58% | 3.5 | Hold |
| Bahamas (Exumas) | USD 84,000 | 54% | 3.5 | Hold |
| Cayman (Seven Mile Beach) | USD 68,000 | 56% | 3.4 | Hold |
| Saint Lucia | USD 38,000 | 42% | 3.3 | Hold |
| Saint Barthelemy (peak New Year) | USD 230,000 | 84% | 2.7 | Underperform |
| Mustique (Christmas peak) | USD 240,000 | 76% | 2.6 | Underperform |
Composite reflects equal-weighted scoring across rate-vs-three-year-average, supply tightness, staff bench, hurricane-clause discipline, and air access. The 6-to-10-bedroom Christmas-NYE median is the inventory-weighted median across the named operator channels and the broker-tracked direct book per market .
Methodology
Five axes, equal-weighted on a one-to-five scale.
Rate vs three-year average, scored against the 2023-24 to 2025-26 mean. The Caribbean's three-year window is short because hurricane-recovery years (notably the 2017 Irma cycle for Anguilla, BVI, and Saint Barthelemy) distort longer averages. A market more than 12 percent above its three-year mean scores 2; within 5 percent scores 4; 5 to 12 percent below scores 5.
Supply tightness, scored against the 15 May 2026 locked percentage on 6-to-10-bedroom Christmas-NYE trophy weekly buyouts. The two-week Christmas-NYE block is the load-bearing window: a market more than 80 percent locked scores 2; 65 to 80 percent locked scores 3; under 65 percent scores 4 or 5 depending on the buyer-experience trade.
Staff bench depth, scored against the named-chef and named-housekeeper bench at the trophy band, the visa-and-work-permit reliability, and the multi-week chef booking calendar through the December-January window. Anguilla, BVI, and Antigua score well; Saint Lucia and Cayman score 3.
Hurricane-clause discipline, scored against the operator-channel willingness to move bookings on a named-storm event, the contract clarity on deposit return, and the recovery infrastructure relative to last storm exposure. Pavilion Caribbean, Wimco, and Limin Vacations handle Anguilla and BVI cleanly. Mustique runs through the Mustique Company single-channel structure, which is reliable but inflexible. Saint Lucia operators are the most uneven.
Air access, scored against the private-jet runway availability, the commercial-flight density, and the Caribbean inter-island helicopter and ferry reliability. Antigua and Saint Lucia have the strongest commercial connections (V.C. Bird International with American, BA, and Virgin direct; Hewanorra International with similar density). Anguilla and BVI rely on inter-island ferry or short-hop charter from Saint Maarten, San Juan, or Antigua. Saint Barthelemy is the strongest small-aircraft operation. Necker is helicopter-only from Beef Island.
The three outperform markets
Anguilla. USD 78,000 median Christmas-NYE trophy week, 52 percent locked, composite 4.4. The Beach House Anguilla (8BR Meads Bay), Kishti East (6BR Meads Bay), Santosha Estate (8BR Long Bay), Villa Nevaeh (7BR Long Bay), and the Indigo Villa (4BR Little Harbour) carry the trophy spread. The market has the cleanest hurricane-recovery infrastructure of the post-Irma rebuild, and the low-density beach configuration (Meads Bay holds 12 trophy villas across a 1.6-kilometre stretch) supports the buyer-experience trade. The CuisinArt Resort and Four Seasons Anguilla provide the resort-amenity backstop. Anguilla also leads on the staff-bench depth: Pavilion Caribbean's Anguilla bench fills three named chef positions across the two-week Christmas-NYE block in a normal year. Read the Anguilla best-of for the per-property breakdown.
British Virgin Islands. USD 165,000 median weighted across Necker, Moskito Branson Estate, Eustatia, Virgin Gorda private estate, and the Tortola hilltop trophy. Composite 4.3. Necker Island full buyout (USD 110,000 to USD 175,000 base, plus the all-inclusive food, beverage, and activity layer) carries the trophy-tier listing; the Moskito Branson Estate (USD 95,000 to USD 145,000 base) sits as the next tier; the contained-island Eustatia and Saba Rock pair runs the third. Virgin Limited Edition's operator discipline is the cleanest in the regional set on contracts, deposits, and named-storm releases. Read our BVI best-of for the contained-island math. Air access is the structural caveat: Beef Island is single-runway, and the Necker-and-Moskito helicopter transfer adds USD 800 to USD 1,400 per leg.
Antigua. USD 145,000 median for the Jumby Bay private-estate stack. Composite 4.2. Tý Compton (8BR), Sandpiper, Mariposa, Calabash, Turtle Reef, Les Palmiers, plus the Oetker Collection Jumby Bay Private Estates inventory all carry the contained-island math. The 78 percent locked figure reflects the structural tightness of the Jumby Bay stack: 14 estates, total Christmas-NYE inventory of 28 weekly slots, of which 22 are gone by 15 May. Outside Jumby Bay, the Mill Reef Club estates and the English Harbour hilltop trophy carry the second tier. Read our Antigua destination guide for the neighborhood breakdown.
The two underperform markets at trophy band
Saint Barthelemy peak New Year. USD 230,000 median for the 28 December to 4 January week at Pointe Milou and Lurin trophy. Composite 2.7. The single-week New Year buy-in dominates the Saint Barthelemy calendar: the 14-day Christmas-and-New-Year stack at the EUR-denominated trophy properties (USD 180,000 to USD 300,000 conversion at current rates) sits at 84 percent locked by 15 May, and the rate climb has run 32 percent on the same trophy properties since 2022 with no comparable product improvement. Sibarth and Wimco hold the deepest trophy book; the operator discipline is reliable, but the seven-figure-and-above rate compression for the seven-day window does not return product value. Buyers who want Saint Barthelemy for the airport math, the Eden Rock and Cheval Blanc anchor, or the F&B grid (Le Sereno, Bonito, Tamarin) can still book; buyers who want a comparable Christmas week at moderated rates should look at Anguilla or Antigua. Read our St Barts Christmas 2026 availability piece for the per-week breakdown.
Mustique Christmas peak. USD 240,000 median for the Christmas trophy week. Composite 2.6. The single-channel Mustique Company structure is the structural feature of the Mustique market: 80 villas, single broker, single rate card, and single contract template. The structure is reliable but inflexible. The Christmas trophy week (22 to 29 December) clears at USD 190,000 to USD 290,000 across the named villas (Toucan Hill, Antilles, Sienna, the Princess Margaret-vintage estates) and the rate climb has tracked Saint Barthelemy without the air-access advantage; the LIA-or-Saint Vincent-and-the-Grenadines connection adds a half-day to door-to-door transit. The market remains outstanding for buyers who want Mustique for non-rate reasons (the privacy, the single-island gate, the Christmas-day social calendar at Basil's Bar). For first-time Caribbean trophy buyers, the rate-to-product trade does not work.
The hold tier
Six markets sit in the hold tier (composite 3.3 to 3.7). Turks and Caicos Grace Bay holds at USD 68,000 trophy median; the reef-protected calm water and the Beach Enclave Long Bay, Amazing Grace, Triton Luxury Villa, and Grace Bay Estates trophy stack support the rate. Barbados Sandy Lane Estate holds at USD 95,000 trophy median; the Sandy Lane resort-amenity bench and the named estate properties (the Sandy Lane Estate trophy band) drive the rate floor. The Bahamas split between Harbour Island (Pink Sands beachfront stack including Asian House and La Palmeraie) and the Exumas (private-island and contained-cay configurations). Cayman Seven Mile Beach holds at USD 68,000; the structural advantage is the air-access reliability and the family-credible amenity bench. Saint Lucia at USD 38,000 trophy median is the value pocket; the Sugar Beach Viceroy adjacent and the Soufriere-side villa stack carry the inventory.
The 2027-28 booking sequence
For 2027-28 Christmas-NYE in the outperform tier, contract by 31 March 2027 for Necker, the Moskito Branson Estate, Antigua Jumby Bay private estates, and the Anguilla trophy beachfront stack. Hold-tier markets (Turks and Caicos Grace Bay, Barbados Sandy Lane Estate, Bahamas Harbour Island, Bahamas Exumas, Cayman Seven Mile Beach, Saint Lucia) can run to 30 June 2027. Saint Barthelemy mid-band can run to 31 May 2027. The two underperform-at-trophy markets (Mustique Christmas peak, Saint Barthelemy Pointe Milou and Lurin New Year) should be contracted only as ratchet bookings through Mustique Company, Sibarth, or WIMCO; the spot-rate buy at six months out does not work in either market.
One closing observation. The Caribbean trophy band has held its rate climb at 4.6 percent on the 2025-26 base, which is the slowest annual climb in the regional set since 2021. The flatter rate trajectory reflects three things: the cumulative effect of the 2017-2022 rate runs, the post-COVID demand normalization, and the operator-channel pushback against Mustique-and-Saint Barthelemy-style ceilings. Real money in the next 18 months is in Antigua's Jumby Bay private-estate stack and the Anguilla trophy beachfront stack, both of which we expect to absorb additional Christmas-NYE demand without the proportional rate climb that Saint Barthelemy and Mustique have absorbed.
Last updated 2026-03. We have not adjusted our editorial for the commission rate. See how-we-make-money for the full disclosure.